More Inconvenient Truths


After the recent heavy rains and flooding, I have been thinking about weather patterns and the extent to which they are an ‘act of God’ vs. an ‘act of man’.  Back in December 2009, I wrote an opinion piece called “Rethinking Inconvenient Truths” in which I challenged the global warming paradigm (which has interestingly been rebranded as climate change).  At the time, I was intrigued by the debate stimulated by the theft/leaking (depending on who you believe) of over 1,000 e-mails from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. These e-mails detail exchanges with researchers/scientists globally, and cast serious aspersions on the validity of “global warming” theories.

I had skimmed many of the e-mail exchanges which are still freely available on-line, and my concerns were twofold.  Firstly, there was the apparent fudging of the computer models which drive climate change analysis (check out wattsupwiththat.com).  It appears as if the researcher/programmer wanted to ensure that the data fit the hypothesis—and may have been fudging the model to effect this.  The e-mails about the computer model frequently repeat terms like “hide,” “ignore” and “make it up,” in a way that makes me feel less than confident.

Secondly, it appeared to me that the advocates of global warming were trying to silence the voice of those who disagreed with the global warming theory.  For example, an e-mail from Phil Jones to Michael Mann, at Pennsylvania State University (a central figure in this climate-gate scandal), dated July 8, 2004, notes: “I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow—even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!” (My note: In the quote above, IPCC stands for Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change).

Nearly three years on, some observers like myself are even more sceptical than before.  Back in January of this year, data was released in a manner that was so quiet that it made me wonder.  You see, based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data issued by the UK Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit clearly shows that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.  In other words, for the past 15 years, the global temperature has actually been cooling, NOT warming.  Further, the data strengthens the argument for climate change being driven by solar activity, not human behaviour.  In an article printed in the UK’s Mail on Sunday on January 29th 2012, a scientist is quoted as saying that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening to further impact on weather patterns. 

Here in the UK the last two winters have both been marked by record low temperatures and July which should have been the peak of the ‘summer’ was quite mild and not quite ‘summery’ at all.  On the other side of the Atlantic, the US endures record high temperatures and a drought that threatens agricultural production and consequently food prices.  Quite confusing weather but the trend is still clear – global average annual temperatures are cooling. 

Mainstream academics still stubbornly cling to their computer models which predict that global warming should be happening.  It actually reminds me of the economists who were confused when their theoretical models failed to predict the current global economic turmoil.  It is time to wake up and accept that something is happening to our global weather patterns and no one seems to fully understand what is happening.  Dr Nicola Scafetta, of Duke University in North Carolina, argues that “If temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again, the divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories.”  Furthermore, he is among those that question the emphasis on CO2 emissions as opposed to solar activity.  He concludes that “The real issue is whether the model itself is accurate”.  One of America’s most eminent climate experts, Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology, suggests that “The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the sun”. USA Tax Singapore

So something is happening and we can expect more strange weather.  Some even predict that an ice age is overdue.  Perhaps there will be a mini ice age like in the 17th century that allowed frost fairs on the frozen Thames and where New York Harbor froze allowing people to walk from Staten Island to Manhattan.  Perhaps there will be something worse or nothing at all.  Time will tell.

Despite our challenges, I continue to have the audacity of hope in a brighter tomorrow.  Read more on derrenjoseph.blogspot.com

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